Katsu, the Wanderer
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs DAN DAN (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kurt Samson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Takuro Hiraoka (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nova Chan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs 孝晃 長濱 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs haruka sonoda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Loss vs Yuto Mori (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 永井 泰洋 (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Xingyu ZHOU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 剛 西舘 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yoshihiko Kato (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs SOUICHI MIYABE (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs LEE JUI-CHI (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Win vs 綸太 宇野 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs SUMETHA Udomkosonkit (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kousaku Nishi (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 11:89
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kazushi Nimiya (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 10% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 剛大 土本 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kazuki Sawabe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hiroki Itakura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs KYOSUKE YAMAMOTO (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.