Marlynn, Treasure Hunter
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-3-1
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs ナオヤ タカハシ (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Munehiro Tada (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 17:83
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs SUMETHA Udomkosonkit (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eddy C (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Keisuke Oki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 15% | Draw |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 金 昱成 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yohei Kurihara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
Round 4: Win vs Yu Cheng Lai (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs atsushi tsuchiya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rio Sakai (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Win vs 守 山下 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 圭資 山村 (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs youngchan ju (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tatsumiya genchi (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs レオン 藤倉 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 隆誠 細井 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Masato Umeki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 27:73
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 英 鈴木 (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs hiromitsu nohara (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
Round 3: Win vs YE MINSHENG (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs タカユキ アサヒナ (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 高柳 賢一 (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 17:83
Round 2: Win vs XINCHENG XIE (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 佑紀 丸田 (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Taiga Maeda (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.