Puffin, Hightail at Calling: Shinjuku 2026
Puffin, Hightail
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
43rd • 7-5-0
25%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
5.3
Surp
3.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs 大和 宮脇 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs YUKITOMO DAIKI (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 佑紀 丸田 (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs KYOSUKE YAMAMOTO (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jyunnosuke Yano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Sota Amitsu (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
Round 9: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Fu Kah Deng (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Masaaki Ochi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
25% (3/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-1
14%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 卓也 金子 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Takatoshi Sato (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
Round 5: Win vs Anthony Hlaing (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Taiki Koike (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Draw |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Koki Mori (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yu Wei Wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs June Lekstutis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Miyaji Kotaro (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryotarou Yamada (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 雅貴 大場 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Rio Sakai (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jackie wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Win vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hiroaki Osawa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs 大和 宮脇 (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hidenori Yano (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marquis Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs レオン 藤倉 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tatsuya OKANISHI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 明久 髙橋 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Russell (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs Manson Hsiau (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs hiromitsu nohara (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs DAN DAN (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 直樹 多川 (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Cho (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Naoki Yasukawa (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.