Jarl Vetreiði at Calling: Shinjuku 2026

Jarl Vetreiði

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nova Chan

18th • 9-3-0

58%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs YE MINSHENG (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kenta Miki (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kazushi Nimiya (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs 一樹日浦 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs SOUICHI MIYABE (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yuto Mori (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Yau (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Oh Oh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.09
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.24
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.39
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.92
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

David Yau

30th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ナオヤタカハシ (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 明久髙橋 (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oh Oh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Theo T. (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kohei Okuda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hiroaki Sakuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Masaaki Ochi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nova Chan (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Rio Sakai (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.05
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R7	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.26
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.14
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.57

Tatsuya OKANISHI

37th • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jun Sato (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Masaaki Ochi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs JUNG MOO SUNG (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs YUKITOMO DAIKI (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hiroaki Sakuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Akira Inuma (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Law Wen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs TAKUYA KOJIMA (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R8	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.43
R10	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.46
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Jack Tang

51st • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs DAN DAN (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 直樹多川 (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Masay Toda (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sota Amitsu (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kousaku Nishi (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yuma Ishikura (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Akira Inuma (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tsunoda Shingo (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.48
R11	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.62
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Mason Galvan

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 祥弘橋本 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Gammons (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs タカヤスギモト (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tatsumiya genchi (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs 佐藤宗良 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tsunoda Shingo (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.15
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.51
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R9	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Connor Leverton

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 暁柴野 (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs naoki tsuji (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 永井泰洋 (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Win	✗	0.86	1.20
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.41
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.57

Satoshi Kawamoto

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blaž Hrastnik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 康仁三竹 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kazuya Nakata (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Herzner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Shoma Nakama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ryouichi Sakazaki (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

ryo inoue

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 83:17

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 聡本田 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Masay Toda (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 24:76

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Koichiro Sato (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marquis Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hiroki Itakura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.61
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.72

KYOSUKE YAMAMOTO

dropped • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryota Kitanaka (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs sho ono (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs naoki tsuji (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryotarou Yamada (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bryan Kong (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.23
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-

憲佑佐藤

dropped • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 悠悟古屋 (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 拓弥橋本 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kenta Miki (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs So Yanagita (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daisuke Uto (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Hiroshi Suzuki (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.51
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-

So Yanagita

dropped • 1-6-0

57%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 聡本田 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs PANG CHEN (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Takaaki Sano (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 理央鎌田 (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 憲佑佐藤 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs RYUTA NAKADA (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

智行内海

dropped • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs hirotsugu shimauchi (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Blaž Hrastnik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lane Thomason (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Takaaki Sano (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Yu Wei Wu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Yukihiko Ikeda

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yu Cheng Lai (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 優大村 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs YUJIE MAO (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.54
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Kazuki Sawabe

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs sho ono (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs EIKI SUGAI (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Takuya iida (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Takaaki Sano

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 匠哉小島 (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuuya Okawa (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs So Yanagita (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 智行内海 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs hiromitsu nohara (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

juno choi

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuya Nakata (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richie Britton (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs ナオヤタカハシ (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

綸太宇野

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lane Thomason (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs matoshi anthony Del mundo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs JIN SEUNGHYUN (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.