Briar at Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026

Briar

92 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nathan Crawford

5th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Terra) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Karl (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Epermanis (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Howard Brody (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Chris Rowland (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

15:85

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.11
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.14
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.17
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.41
R8	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R9	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.53
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Carlos Cruz

11th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Josh Hill (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs quintin ludtke (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Stanko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Seth Clark (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.64
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Daniel Casullo

21st • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gio Eldred (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eric Lin (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michael Clair (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Grant Kern (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.23
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Jeremiah Gardner

22nd • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs James Potter (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs WILLIAM LAMPERT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs June Lekstutis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Khoi Doan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Sam Coons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sebastiano Cavallo

31st • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sandeep Sethi (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Leah Panitz (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gavin Myre (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Charles Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Austin Redington (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.15
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.64
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Sam Coons

33rd • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Barrett (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sean Murray (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mel Falcon (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Harper

34th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bill Fox (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Cody Santo (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.27
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.31
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Paul van Gijssel

36th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tim Wong (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sean Murray (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Randall Robinson (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Charles Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Win	✗	0.85	2.42
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Eric Pettinelli

40th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chandler To (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Colin Topper (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Santo (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.22
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.35

Charles Simmons

47th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.28

Richard Truong

55th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jorja Rhoda (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Fogle (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Potter (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Braxton Palmer (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.82
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R9	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Shaker

58th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Libman (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Casullo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Florian) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eric Lin (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Mihilli (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Shymko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Fontan (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Lau (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.64
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Zack Phillips

61st • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Koenig (Dorinthea) - Expected: 90:10

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Devin Simms (Terra) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Wesley Osorio (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Katherine Black (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Moiz Hasan (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 67:33

15:85

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	Silver Age	Terra	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.92
R8	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.52
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

May Hayden

65th • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs William Wai Leem Au Yong (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jean Paul Negron (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Clair (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.09
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Jack Jarvis

73rd • 3-6-0

89%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

4.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ty Murray (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs William Wai Leem Au Yong (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Leia Asp (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (5.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.35

Jay Maillet

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kent Summerour (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Braxton Palmer (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Erick Boeder (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

June Lekstutis

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Greg Gutierrez (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Hiffa (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Austin Redington (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 71:29

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Grant Kern (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Khoi Doan

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luna Mayham (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew W (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chandler To (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs John Houder (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Wesley Osorio (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chase Wenz (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Win	✗	0.85	2.04
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Max Escaler

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyson Au (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Shymko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Chandler To (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Michael Clair

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tas Hasting (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adam Rotondi (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Casullo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Phillip Spader

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zach Donahue (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Robinson (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Holderbaugh (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Cole Branson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jay Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sam Coons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Chuck Ford

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Holly Benton (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Casullo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Chase Wenz (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Stew Fraser (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jay Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R6	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.26
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Andrew Blackwell

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs John Miranda (Chane) - Expected: 71:29

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Will Joseph (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kheng Joe Lau (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dario Benitez (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Johnathan Esquivel (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.02
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jaemes Chouinard

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Maggert (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs gabriel ebady (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Vetter (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Luis Maderas

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Westbrook (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Johnathan Esquivel (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jack Pearce (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Matthew W

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luke Snyder (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Khoi Doan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Mihilli (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Fisher Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Taylor Reichel

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Devin Simms (Terra) - Expected: 60:40

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Piff (Dorinthea) - Expected: 90:10

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Wadley (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Shymko

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Perekhov-Lef (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Devin Vincent (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Bray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alex Mihilli

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ben Stuttgen (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Natalie Birch (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew W (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wesley Osorio (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Hurt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hakan Gunes

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Potter (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jake Montalbano (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Natalie Birch (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ty Murray (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Carter Wenz (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Michael Corrigan

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Neal Blooflat (Terra) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Michaud (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sean Soderman (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Doug Frauman (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Ryan Ward

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stew Fraser (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Donovan Mitchell (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs quintin ludtke (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Brock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Leia Asp (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Adrian Gebhart

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs William Weinberg (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Braxton Palmer (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Vore (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.86
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.28

Brian Lorenz

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Perrin Franklin (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jack Pearce (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.88
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Riley Lont

dropped • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zeni Ragsdale (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs gabriel ebady (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs sean Burke (Chane) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs WILLIAM LAMPERT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R4	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.32
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Dylan Arnold

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Elias Holter (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Perekhov-Lef (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs William Wai Leem Au Yong (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Corwin Benton (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Xavier Byrne

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Braxton Palmer (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Sherwood (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tim Wong (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Doug Frauman (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Zeni Ragsdale

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Riley Lont (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Fryar (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Hurt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Vetter

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs kosei chetanna (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Harris (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jaemes Chouinard (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Will Joseph (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Andy Julkowski

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Antara Mandal (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Logan Petersen (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Steven O'Reilly (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Hayden Christoffersen

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Philip Huang (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Leah Panitz (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.62
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Michael Stanko

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Czarny (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tony Stobbe (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

WILLIAM LAMPERT

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Rebecca Helmann (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Riley Akers (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Riley Lont (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

ANDREW WEBBER

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Doug Frauman (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Emily Lampert (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Alan Meckler

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mason Williams (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jake Montalbano (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dalton Gomez

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Katherine Black (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Jansen (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Tungate (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Evan Groff

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chandler To (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Brock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Antara Mandal (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kenneth Stojevich (Terra) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Terra	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Joshua Westbrook

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nick Gabler (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Justin Fan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Kenneth Lyle

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chubbs Irons (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs SEAN STELL (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Riley Akers

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Katherine Black (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs WILLIAM LAMPERT (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tony Stobbe

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chubbs Irons (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Stanko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chandler Bushnell

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gavin Trosclair (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kenneth Stojevich (Terra) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dario Benitez (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	Silver Age	Terra	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jake Montalbano

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hakan Gunes (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Drew Carrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Meckler (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Michaud

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Sherwood (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cole Torres (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Corrigan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Shymko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sean Murray

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Coons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Alexander Perekhov-Lef

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Shymko (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Arnold (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Kyle Johnson

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chad Garr (Terra) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Porter Boroski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Coons (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Benjamin Hepp

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tas Hasting (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Dain Ramirez

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Armando Aguilar (Florian) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

David Sitrick

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Houder (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chase Wenz (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.85
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Justin Fan

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hurt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Westbrook (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Logan Petersen

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eric Lin (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andy Julkowski (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Smith

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Keyton Adams (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Karl (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-

Nicholas Hiffa

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Philliips (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs June Lekstutis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-

Porter Boroski

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jake Trenberth (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs James Potter (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

SEAN STELL

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Clifford (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kenneth Lyle (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

William Weinberg

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Barrett (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Devin Simms (Terra) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	Silver Age	Terra	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Adam Karl

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 58:42

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Lin (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Muhidin Grosonja

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Schubert (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Chubbs Irons (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Justin Fryar

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hurt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Zeni Ragsdale (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Korner

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Billy Uribes (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Bill Fox

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Stuttgen (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Blake Freeman

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Dwayne Warren

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Barger (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Eric Norris

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Wong (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Holly Benton

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Weatherholtz (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Nik Dinnis

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Rotondi (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Richard Moore

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Manoj Malipeddu (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Philip Luzod (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Samuel Van Winkle

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Shawn Adams

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Holderbaugh (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dante Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Casey Walker

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Daniel Winckler

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Emerson Miller

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Grant Kern (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Greg Gutierrez

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs June Lekstutis (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hasan Abdali

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Erick Boeder (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Hayley Neighbors

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Aidan Coughlin (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Holly Stowe

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jean Paul Negron (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Luna Mayham

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Nolder

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chase Wenz (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Perrin Franklin

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Rice

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Santo (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Tyson Au

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.