Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Terra (SAGE)

Terra

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Devin Simms

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Garrett Hodsdon (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Weinberg (Briar) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zack Phillips (Briar) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kenneth Stojevich

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dakota Sisk (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Groff (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Neal Blooflat

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Corrigan (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs kosei chetanna (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

TUCKER CAMPBELL

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hurt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brandon Coyle

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chad Garr

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Johnson (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.