Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Blaze, Firemind (SAGE)

Blaze, Firemind

52 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Drew Bosco

5th • 8-2-0

50%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

5.3

Surp

6.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Casey Knepley (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dario Benitez (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs gabriel stallings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Wyatt Schmitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

10:90

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90, underdog victory

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.86
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Win	✗	0.90	2.99
R10	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Wyatt Schmitt

15th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs marcellus hunter (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Rotondi (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Charles Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.33
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Mel Falcon

38th • 6-3-0

22%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dario Benitez (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Myles Schortgen (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Randall Robinson (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Sam Coons (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Bryan Barger (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.72
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	Silver Age	Dash	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Michael Lau

48th • 6-3-0

33%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

5.8

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 18:82

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kheng Joe Lau (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matt Schubert (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Karl (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Bryan Barger (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ty Murray (Lexi) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.47
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.78
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

James Wray

49th • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.7

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Vore (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jean Paul Negron (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Braxton Palmer (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Brock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Howard Brody (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.60
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.76
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Johnathan Esquivel

53rd • 5-3-1

44%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Van Tatenhove (Dash) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Paul White (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.27
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.76
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Draw	✗	0.32	-
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Casey Knepley

52nd • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Muhidin Grosonja (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eric Horton (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Clair (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Johnathan Esquivel (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Fisher Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Quest Pittman

66th • 4-5-0

56%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mason Williams (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jaydon Loar (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kenneth Lyle (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Chandler To (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Leo Shea (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.72
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Michael Collins-Dowden

67th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dain Ramirez (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Clair (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sam Coons (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew W (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jack Jarvis (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.76
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R9	Silver Age	Dash	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Jon Gibson

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Blake Freeman (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aidan Coughlin (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs gabriel stallings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Potter

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Porter Boroski (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs sean Burke (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs William Wai Leem Au Yong (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Jonny Espejo

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Dunkirk (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Ward (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Travonte Johnson (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Wesley Osorio

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Travonte Johnson (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Libman (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Manoj Malipeddu (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Mihilli (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kheng Joe Lau (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Doug Frauman (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.61
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.21
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

gabriel stallings

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chase Wenz (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.46
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jean Paul Negron

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Holly Stowe (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ben Stuttgen (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dario Benitez (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Win	✗	0.90	1.66
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.15
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Raheel Khalid

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tony Stobbe (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gavin Trosclair (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.08
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Sophie Becker

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Leo Shea (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aron Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 80:20

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Dash) - Expected: 18:82

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chubbs Irons (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Dash	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Adam Rotondi

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Pickens (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Clair (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Noah Geiger (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Paul Kilcrease

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Derek Drost (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John McGovern (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Westbrook (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jaemes Chouinard (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.78
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Cole Branson

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Paul White (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Keyton Adams (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.03
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Dylan Tucker

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Dunkirk (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Sherwood (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Fisher Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Leo Shea (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Kenn Johnson

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Andy Julkowski (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Travonte Johnson (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Noah Geiger

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Czarny (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sean Soderman (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Rotondi (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.32
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tas Hasting

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Hepp (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gio Eldred (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Clair (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Travonte Johnson (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.88
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Thomas Bray

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brett Rose (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Taotao Chu (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Grant Kern (Dash) - Expected: 18:82

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Shymko (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dash	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Aidan Coughlin

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs John McGovern (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Lin (Dash, Database) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

10:90

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Katherine Black (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash, Database	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Donovan Mitchell

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Philip Huang (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Ward (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Elsey (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

John McGovern

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bryan Barger (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Coughlin (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

BENJAMIN ALANIZ

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kaden Schoonover (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Lau (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.81
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Gibson

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Jansen (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Libman (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Joe Mastowski

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Philip Luzod (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs WILLIAM LAMPERT (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.54
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joseph McKinley

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Schubert (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kamron Van Hulzen

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Maxson (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Redington (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Nicholas Mihalas

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Noah Geiger (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Johnathan Esquivel (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Philip Huang

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Donovan Mitchell (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aron Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hayden Christoffersen (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Bryce Douglas

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph McKinley (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dario Benitez (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Geoffrey Hunt (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Dakota Sisk

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs William Wai Leem Au Yong (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Warden (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kenneth Stojevich (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Czarny

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Stanko (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Geiger (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Leia Asp (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Drew Carrick

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Montalbano (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jonathan Lalo

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jaydon Loar (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ty Murray (Lexi) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Shane Rhoda

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Rebecca Helmann (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

brynn nieboer

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs John Koenig (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Maggert (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Pearson

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zach Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Soderman (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Spencer Giroux

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Elsey (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Billy Uribes (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Bryam Silva

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Daniel Ferrara

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Wood

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Marshel Halliday (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Darren Rennie

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Jacob Hawkinson

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Jarvis (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Luke Snyder

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew W (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Matthew Philliips

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Hiffa (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Raea Mitchell

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Karl (Rhinar) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.