Iyslander at Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026

Iyslander

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gui Cohen

3rd • 9-2-0

82%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Owen Irvine (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Green (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cody Santo (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Drew Bosco (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38

25:75

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.24
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.55
R10	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.64
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Kheng Joe Lau

dropped • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lau (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Natalie Birch (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Wesley Osorio (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Santo

dropped • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Rice (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Paul White (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Thomas Johnson-Averette

dropped • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Van Winkle (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Bray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Draw vs Moiz Hasan (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Tyler Tungate

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Weatherholtz (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marshel Halliday (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Rivera (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bryan Barger (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.30
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bryce Henschel

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kenneth Stojevich (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Santo (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Hepp (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zach Donahue (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.88
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

Codi Barnett

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jake Montalbano (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Zach Donahue (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Cole Branson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andy Julkowski (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Colin Topper

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Green (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jaydon Loar (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ty Murray (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Newberry

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Fai) - Expected: 40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Garrett Hodsdon (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jean Paul Negron (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Joe Nichols

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs kosei chetanna (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Piff (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrew Wilborn

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Devin Vincent

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Emily Lampert (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Shymko (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Joe Santianna

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Weiss

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Riley Lont (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.