Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chris Rowland

10th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brandon King (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Wadley (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Braxton Palmer (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Casullo (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.23
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.59
R9	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Michael Dailey

50th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alan Meckler (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Rhinar) - Expected: 82:18

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Will Joseph (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Seth Clark (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Howard Brody

51st • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nancy Lampert (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Taotao Chu (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chase Wenz (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Zak Miller (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dagan White (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.14
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Adam Nieves Santiago

63rd • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Piff (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Drew Carrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tas Hasting (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Ward (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jesse Hurt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.23
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Leia Asp

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Czarny (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Ward (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jack Jarvis (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Chubbs Irons (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Aron Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.42

Jack Pearce

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Myre (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gavin Trosclair (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Tommy Hendricks

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aron Johnson (Florian) - Expected: 75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs SEAN STELL (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kheng Joe Lau (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.95
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marshel Halliday

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Wood (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Tungate (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Redington (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Zach Donahue

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Spader (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Codi Barnett (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.40
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Billy Uribes

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Giroux (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gavin Trosclair (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-

Ethan Strickland-Robbins

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Lalo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Hepp (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jay Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (1.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R3	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Daniel Rutkowski

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shane Rhoda (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Riley Akers (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

marcellus hunter

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Doug Frauman (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Brett Rose

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Elias Holter

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Arnold (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Sandeep Sethi

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Wesley Chandler

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Wadley (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.