Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Boltyn (SAGE)

Boltyn

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stew Fraser

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Ward (Briar) - Expected: 21:79

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Shane Rhoda (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Antara Mandal (Boltyn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 21:79

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Antara Mandal

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andy Julkowski (Briar) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Groff (Briar) - Expected: 21:79

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Keyton Adams (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Boltyn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Travonte Johnson (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gavin Myre

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Randolph (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Pearce (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Ehalt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Andrew Maggert

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jaemes Chouinard (Briar) - Expected: 21:79

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs brynn nieboer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Jansen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Briar) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Owen Irvine

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs quintin ludtke (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jake Trenberth

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Porter Boroski (Briar) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.