Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Lexi (SAGE)

Lexi

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anthony Pham

19th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.5

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Vore (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kindreck Hegsted (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chris Rowland (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Will Joseph (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dagan White (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.29
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ty Murray

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Pickens (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dominick Wolfgang (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Lalo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jack Jarvis (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Colin Topper (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Lau (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Brandon Sandburg

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Hill (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs sean Burke (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Dunkirk (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Natasha Yocum

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Karl (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Riley Akers (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Jorja Rhoda

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

gabriel ebady

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Jansen (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jaemes Chouinard (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Riley Lont (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.