Valda Brightaxe at Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026

Valda Brightaxe

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joel Grizzelle

54th • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan H (Dromai) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 29:71

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emily Lampert (Dromai) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Briar) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Casullo (Briar) - Expected: 29:71

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Epermanis (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Briar) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.78
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Ryan Jarvis

74th • 2-7-0

89%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Seth Clark (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jorja Rhoda (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Katherine Black (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Leia Asp (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Garrett Hodsdon (Dromai) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Sandburg (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Aron Johnson (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jack Jarvis (Briar) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Steven O'Reilly

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zach Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andy Julkowski (Briar) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Brandon Dunkirk

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Tucker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 18:82

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Sandburg (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.