Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Oscilio (SAGE)

Oscilio

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Casey Schaffer

18th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs brynn nieboer (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kindreck Hegsted (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Marshel Halliday (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jay Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.84
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.47

Jared Contaldi

30th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sophie Becker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Howard Brody (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Doug Frauman (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Codi Barnett (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Bryan Barger (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.56
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Seth Clark

32nd • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs William Wai Leem Au Yong (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matt Schubert (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.55
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Jacob Neet

39th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cody Bavin (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Wyatt Schmitt (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jaemes Chouinard (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.74
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Chandler To

46th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Evan Groff (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Khoi Doan (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Corwin Benton (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Fogle (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mark Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.47

Christian Vitanza

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Bryam Silva (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Noah Geiger (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Seth Clark (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Devin Simms (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.30
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Suryan Bhatia

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dwayne Warren (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stephan Giambi (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jack Pearce (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Corrigan (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Tommy Buljan

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Dunkirk (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Arnold (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Steve Halloran (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew W (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Grant Kern (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Braxton Palmer (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Alex Slotnick

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Cole Branson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sean Murray (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Dante Irvine

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Murray (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Adams (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Corrigan (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.76
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Geoffrey Hunt

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Christoffersen (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bryce Douglas (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Barrett (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.86
R5	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Amanda Sullender

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Pearce (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kent Summerour

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Antara Mandal (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jay Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Natalie Birch

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs sean Burke (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Mihilli (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kheng Joe Lau (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Hakan Gunes (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Wesley Dong

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Maxson (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

kosei chetanna

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Vetter (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joe Nichols (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Neal Blooflat (Terra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Terra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dexter Simmons

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Topper (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Lau (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Albert Irvine

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Horton (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Cody Bavin

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.