Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brodie Spurlock

2nd • 10-2-0

92%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Emery Powell (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Carter Wenz (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Zeni Ragsdale (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Grant Kern (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Austin Redington (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

75:25

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.06
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R5	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.20
R11	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R12	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

AUSTIN BRILL

5th • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jorja Rhoda (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Seth Clark (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luis Maderas (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Cody Santo (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.07
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R6	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.03
R9	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.21
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Marco Marcelli

12th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs quintin ludtke (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Trosclair (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Johnathan Esquivel (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs gabriel stallings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs June Lekstutis (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.96
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.24

Nathanael Frautschy

14th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Corrigan (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jon Gibson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jaemes Chouinard (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

100:0

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Grant Kern (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.31
R6	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.16
R7	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Will Joseph

16th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tanner Lee (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zach Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Vetter (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mark Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

100:0

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.25
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

Braxton Palmer

23rd • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Xavier Byrne (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Jay Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Redington (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Myles Schortgen (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.21
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Randy Davis

41st • 6-2-1

89%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

0:100

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Fogle (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Blake Freeman (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kamron Van Hulzen (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs John McGovern (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Fontan (Dash) - Expected: 100:0

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24

70:30

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Draw vs Johnathan Esquivel (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Zack Phillips (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.05
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.30
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Draw	✓	0.68	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.24

Myles Schortgen

37th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mel Falcon (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Travonte Johnson (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ty Murray (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Neet (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Braxton Palmer (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.11
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.22
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.25
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.57
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Austin Ryan

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Rivera (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Erick Boeder (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Max Escaler (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Fisher Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.09
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.42
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Chase Wenz

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Nolder (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs gabriel stallings (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Howard Brody (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Chuck Ford (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-

Kindreck Hegsted

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kent Summerour (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Gavin Trosclair

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Billy Uribes (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Pearce (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.87
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Ryan Weatherholtz

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Tungate (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Holly Benton (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Erick Boeder (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hurt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kaden Schoonover

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Leah Panitz (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs BENJAMIN ALANIZ (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adam Karl (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.24

Manoj Malipeddu

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Richard Moore (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Fisher Johnson (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Osorio (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Philip Luzod

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Mastowski (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Richard Moore (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Rebecca Helmann (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.16
R3	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aaron Franklin

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tommy Chafe

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

0.0

Perf

0.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

0:100

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (0.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.