Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Bravo, Flattering Showman (SAGE)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Zachary Suchomel

1st • 11-1-0

75%

Meta

+4.4

Perf

5.5

Surp

4.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Austin Ryan (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Myles Schortgen (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Howard Brody (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Will Joseph (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R5	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R7	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R9	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R10	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.63
R11	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.25
R12	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Tristan Del Pako

27th • 6-2-1

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Casey Walker (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Pickens (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Epermanis (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Vetter (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Riley Lont (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Noah Fogle (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Leo Shea (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Casey Schaffer (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Diana Green

25th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Smith (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dagan White (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs June Lekstutis (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.17
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.60
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesse Hudak

60th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.1

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stew Fraser (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Iyslander) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Sandburg (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Chandler To (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.43
R8	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.81
R9	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Dominick Wolfgang

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ty Murray (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bryan Barger (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Rebecca Helmann (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Rhinar) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Leo Shea (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Benjamin Brock

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Evan Groff (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Leo Shea (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Ward (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

John Houder

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Eric Horton (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Cole Torres (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Khoi Doan (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Draw	✓	0.83	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Derek Drost

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.