Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Rhinar (SAGE)

Rhinar

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brandon Hartman

9th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joe Nichols (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Briar) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mel Falcon (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.56
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.24
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Andrew Epermanis

45th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Albert Irvine (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joseph McKinley (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jesse Hurt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Johnathan Esquivel (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R6	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.35

Dylan Vanpatten

56th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Drew Carrick (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jack Jarvis (Briar) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Potter (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Randall Robinson (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Mark Taylor (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.83
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.16
R5	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Alexander Vore

59th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Wray (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan H (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

100:0

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Carter Wenz (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

20:80

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Tungate (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Raj Giri (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (5.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.31
R9	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Eugene C

72nd • 3-6-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Franklin (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jack Jarvis (Briar) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jaemes Chouinard (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kheng Joe Lau (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.56
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joseph Elsey

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Spencer Giroux (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kenny Tran (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 18:82

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 100:0

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Pettinelli (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Fai	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Andrew Karl

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Raea Mitchell (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Smith (Briar) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Harris (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Lau (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.25
R4	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Sean Soderman

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Noah Pearson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Geiger (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Ehalt (Zyggy) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Corrigan (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.14
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R4	Silver Age	Zyggy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Leah Panitz

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kaden Schoonover (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jared Warden (Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Christoffersen (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio, Scion of the Third Age	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Steve Halloran

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Darren Rennie (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Hiffa (Briar) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.88
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Mejac

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 54:46

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Barrett (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gio Eldred

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Casullo (Briar) - Expected: 18:82

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tas Hasting (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.