Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Enigma (SAGE)

Enigma

13 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Josef Mendez

5th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Van Winkle (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Noah Fogle (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kenneth Lyle (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Harper (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Sam Coons (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gui Cohen (Iyslander) - Expected: 90:10

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Casey Knepley (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 90:10

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

90:10

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 90:10, favorite upset

10:90

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.09
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.11
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	90%	Loss	✓	0.90	-
R10	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Noah Fogle

dropped • 5-2-1

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Fontan (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Richard Truong (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chandler To (Oscilio) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.24
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Dagan White

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Sitrick (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Matt Schubert (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Oscilio) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alex Mihilli (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Howard Brody (Fai) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Fai	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leo Shea

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sophie Becker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Brock (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Dominick Wolfgang (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Quest Pittman (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.04
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.10
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.13
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Illuvial Arnett

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

100:0

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tommy Chafe (Oldhim) - Expected: 100:0

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Oscilio) - Expected: 80:20

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Stanko (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew W (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Fai) - Expected: 13:87

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Silver Age	Fai	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Katherine Black

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Riley Akers (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jaydon Loar (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aidan Coughlin (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Dyllon Dietz

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mara Faris (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs May Hayden (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Seth Clark (Oscilio) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Ian Siczewicz

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Wesley Dong (Oscilio) - Expected: 80:20

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Erick Boeder (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.13
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zak Miller

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sean Soderman (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Howard Brody (Fai) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Fai	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Matthew Harris

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Rim (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Vetter (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Billy Uribes (Fai) - Expected: 13:87, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Karl (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Win	✗	0.90	0.66
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	15%	Win	✗	0.87	2.33
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gabriel Barrett

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Coons (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs William Weinberg (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Geoffrey Hunt (Oscilio) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Kenny Tran

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Wesley Dong (Oscilio) - Expected: 80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Elsey (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Doug Frauman (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Carter Wenz (Dromai) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Ben Stuttgen

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Mihilli (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bill Fox (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

90:10

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jean Paul Negron (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 90:10, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	90%	Loss	✓	0.90	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.