Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026 - Florian (SAGE)

Florian

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mark Taylor

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Grant Kern (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Randy Davis (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Will Joseph (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Chandler To (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aron Johnson

dropped • 2-5-1

38%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Fai) - Expected: 25:75

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Philip Huang (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sophie Becker (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cole Torres (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Draw vs Chubbs Irons (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Leia Asp (Fai) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R5	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Jacob Johnson

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Karl (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Armando Aguilar

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jade Williams (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Dain Ramirez (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Isaac Davison

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Carter Wenz (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.