Aurora at Sunday Showdown: Minneapolis 2026

Aurora

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Isaac Brooks

20th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Manship (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Goldberger (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Tungate (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Taylor Reichel (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nick Gabler

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Westbrook (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Cumming (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nancy Lampert

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Howard Brody (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Rivera (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Garrett Hodsdon (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

TCGTed Grabow

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Clair (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.