Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty at Battle Hardened

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matt Muus

16th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Havens (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Timothy Grant (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Clinton Jeffers (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Quinn Wongkew (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Ashley Yvette Bellevue

17th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Mangel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Natalie Hunt (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.05
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.16
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.84
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.96

Anthony Vero Cerenzio

18th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Walker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brent Brown (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 83:17

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Philippe Paquin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs William Pistel (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jarik Caisse (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.07
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.34
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Dung (Yung) Le

30th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kate Kish (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Dziewit (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Grant (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jose Colon (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs William Pistel (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jeffrey White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.58
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Justin Rowland

39th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cameron Boutot (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Evans (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Fay (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Lezberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Pearlman (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Noah Biros (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.26
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.27
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Addison Hudson

41st • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Schoof (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs The Better Johnson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.92
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Taylor Crawford

44th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kate Kish (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Dziewit (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Crispell (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Darryl Thompson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Robert Teodorczy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.58
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Darryl Thompson

47th • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nik Katebian (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aidan Berkel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.27
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Robert Teodorczy

52nd • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Benjamin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brent Brown (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Evans (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.10
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Clinton Jeffers

49th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Evans (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ricky Perez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Fay (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.75
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.72
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Ethan Oechsle

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander McPherson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Weinfeld (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elise Symmes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Glassbrook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Shane Martin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lennon Philo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Addison Hudson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zack Phillips

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew VanPatten (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.18
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Nicolas Bouffard

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Cook (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Pistel (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robert Teodorczy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jesse Harper

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Lezberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Powell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 83:17

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ka Chan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Crispell (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeffrey White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Bea Budnik

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeff Okrasinski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Seth Clark (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jarik Caisse (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.81
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

David C Perez

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Miller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Everett Rizner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.96
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Justin Evans

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clinton Jeffers (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeffrey White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Teodorczy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Levy

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shane Martin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Fay (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.33
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Austin Gargiule

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brennan Tolnay (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bobby Bourque (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.33
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Kate Kish

dropped • 0-3-1

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Ariel Chapman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.