Battle Hardened: Hartford - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sherman Darrenkamp

13th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Morris (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew VanPatten (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Addison Hudson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Edward Knight (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Randall Sims (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.44
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.73
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Justin Carbungco

36th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kirklan Doherty (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Weinfeld (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jesse Glassbrook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.21
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

William Pearlman

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frederick Governale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Knapp (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Travis Watkins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jake Torres (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Everett Rizner

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Torres (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 24:76

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David C Perez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Michel Beaumont

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lennon Philo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Legg (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.32
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

James Kandziolka

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elise Symmes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs The Better Johnson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.