Katsu, the Wanderer at Battle Hardened: Hartford
Katsu, the Wanderer
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Morris (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew VanPatten (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33
Round 5: Win vs Addison Hudson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Edward Knight (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Randall Sims (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
36th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kirklan Doherty (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ben Weinfeld (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jesse Glassbrook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Frederick Governale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Knapp (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Travis Watkins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jake Torres (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jake Torres (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David C Perez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lennon Philo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chris Legg (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Elise Symmes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs The Better Johnson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Nik Katebian (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.