Arakni, Huntsman at Battle Hardened: Hartford

Arakni, Huntsman

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jake Torres

48th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Marchetti (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Everett Rizner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Goodkin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs William Pearlman (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Ka Chan

dropped • 2-1-1

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Pheano Black (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sullivan Koekkoek (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.26

Christopher Fitzpatrick

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Colby Homan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander McPherson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Schoof (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brian Lee

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Kaliszak (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shane Martin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.