Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: Hartford
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 6-2-0
38%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
4.1
Surp
5.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Langevin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Elise Symmes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Round 8: Win vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kirklan Doherty (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jesse Glassbrook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jose Colon (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cameron Boutot (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Frederick Governale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jarik Caisse (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dustin Soares (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Addison Hudson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Fitzpatrick (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Berger (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nik Katebian (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michel Beaumont (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Bowman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Chapman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Everett Rizner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Fay (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ka Chan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Lemire (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.