Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Hartford
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
16 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
34th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jesse Glassbrook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
Round 3: Win vs David C Perez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Goodkin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Seman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
Round 6: Loss vs Colby Homan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
43rd • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Dredge (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Darryl Thompson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Keith Milde (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Addison Hudson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Travis Watkins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jacob Cohen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Seth Clark (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Abe Geidel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Darryl Thompson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kaz Abe (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Derek Anderson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Loss vs Colby Homan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Stassi (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs William Berger (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Melissa Steinman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cody St Lawrence (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs William Berger (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Oechsle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Carbungco (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alexander McPherson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aidan Berkel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexander Romer (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lennon Philo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Edward Knight (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christopher Stassi (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ashley Yvette Bellevue (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jack Fay (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Yvette Bellevue (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ben Cook (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Gargiule (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Graden Hutchinson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Peter Albano (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elise Symmes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ben Weinfeld (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.2
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mason Taylor (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27
Round 2: Loss vs Colby Homan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Levy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56
Round 3: Loss vs Randall Sims (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Crispell (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Carbungco (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Langevin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nathan McCarthy (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Francis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Frederick Governale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.