Battle Hardened: Hartford - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuki Lee Bender

1st • 11-0-0

82%

Meta

+5.3

Perf

5.3

Surp

5.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Biggs (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Bowman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Colby Homan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs William Pistel (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Edward Knight (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.10
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.23
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.23
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.58
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.53
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.42
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.77
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.79
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.60
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Nghia Tran

3rd • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bea Budnik (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Walker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jake Torres (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs The Better Johnson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan Herndon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan Lemire (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.37
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.01
R9	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.60
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Jeffrey White

15th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Kaliszak (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Abe Geidel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Evans (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Harper (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.48
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Jonah Overholt

45th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Romer (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robert Nelson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Darryl Thompson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.17
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.12
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Travis Watkins

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Beygelman (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Pearlman (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Gaudreault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Glassbrook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.95
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Kevin Brayer

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David C Perez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Fitzpatrick (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 73:27

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brian Kaliszak (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R6	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Fay

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diana Green (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dustin Soares (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Levy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elise Symmes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Tyler Brotton

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hunter Finkbeiner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs shawn Hill (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Madrigal (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Frederick Governale (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Alexander Heger

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Keating (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lennon Philo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

David Mink

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Green (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Lezberg (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keith Milde (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Zachary Miller

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philippe Paquin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Cohen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David C Perez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jonathan Knapp

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Pearlman (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody St Lawrence (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.