Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Hartford
Prism, Awakener of Sol
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
25th • 6-1-1
38%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
4.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Michael Rutkowski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61
Round 3: Win vs Adam Schoof (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Austin Gargiule (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justine DeLuise (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
Round 7: Win vs Lucas Birch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 30% | Draw |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David C Perez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Noah Biros (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Justin Carbungco (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zach Allen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Green (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-1-0
75%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.9
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justine DeLuise (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Edward Knight (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Win vs theofanis neofotistos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Trenton McBride (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Knapp (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bea Budnik (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Canedy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.