Fai, Rising Rebellion at Battle Hardened: Hartford

Fai, Rising Rebellion

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brandon Canedy

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cody St Lawrence (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Okrasinski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Bowman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs shawn Hill (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

John Powell

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Nelson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 36:64

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Dredge (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Ricky Perez

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 9:91

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jasper Hicks (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cameron Boutot (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Brent Brown

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs shawn Hill (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Teodorczy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Peter Albano

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Tillinghast (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Green (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.