Battle Hardened: Hartford - Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire (CC)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rose smyth

5th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan McCarthy (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Biros (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Pearlman (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeffrey White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.15
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.12
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.48
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.60
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Noah Biros

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robert Nelson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Fontan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.07
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.58
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.35
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jesse Kennon

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Lee (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ashley Yvette Bellevue (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Carbungco (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Randall Sims (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Kevin Fontan

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Allen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Biros (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.65
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sebastian Russell

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Chapman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jake Torres (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Tristan Pisani-Blair

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew VanPatten (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Nelson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Travis Watkins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Benjamin Smith

dropped • 2-2-1

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Robert Teodorczy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Rowland (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Romer (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Michael Walker

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathanael Hunt (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.42
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Jared Wyce

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Romah (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Francis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ka Chan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.