Vynnset, Iron Maiden
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 13-2-0
33%
Meta
+5.9
Perf
7.6
Surp
6.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kevin Laforest-Harvey (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leo Shea (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
Round 3: Win vs Mat Himmelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ian Schulte (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Joseph Surowaniec (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Kai Radomi (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (5/15 favorable matchups)
Performance
+5.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 13 actual)
Surprise
7.6 total deviation
Difficulty
6.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
15th • 9-3-0
17%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
6.5
Surp
5.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Kershaw (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs William Guillemette (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Austin Ryan (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Round 5: Win vs Kevin Isabelle Nolet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Adam Filipchuk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs James Miller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kris Mayor (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jessie Naamani (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Raymond Kwan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Hunter Platt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
17% (2/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.5 total deviation
Difficulty
5.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 45% | Win |
17th • 8-4-0
25%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
5.9
Surp
4.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Austin Gargiule (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Roy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Beck (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Felix Krisch (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Raine Karan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 9: Win vs Joshua Lovell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 10: Win vs Alex Girard (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
25% (3/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs James Castellani (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yan Garito (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Filipchuk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Lovell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tre Baroncini (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Biing Chyn "Benson" Lai (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cass Emerson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shahan Ahmed (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Win vs Eric LaGaccia (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Robert Hayward (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jason Thai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Simon Mercier (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Niko Bonnay (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jack Doucet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Borecky (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Loss vs Ben Olsen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs philip poulin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Wren Baxter (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mariusz Korlacki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Win vs Colby Gray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jade Williams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jason Thai (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alexia Trepanier (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nikola Pouliot (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kegan Allen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brian Fowler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs David Wadley (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sanco Iskharia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Parthav Patel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jade Williams (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Charles-Antoine Bouchard (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Atkin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.