Prism, Awakener of Sol at World Championship: Philadelphia

Prism, Awakener of Sol

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ian Zhang

3rd • 9-2-0

91%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

5.2

Surp

6.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mariano Rivero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Huang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Kershaw (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kyle James (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

91% (10/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.41
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.24
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.41
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.96
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.78
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.12
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.72
R16	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.28
R17	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Andrew Cook

63rd • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Edward Knight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bartosz Ziemba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.15
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.41
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.54
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.52

Sammy Weckx

70th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Teo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Vincent PROUM (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.12
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.22
R13	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.06
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R15	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Hugo Ribeiro

74th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Raven (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edison Yue (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marc Pearce (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

85:15

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Troy Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Nghia Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.50
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.51
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.22
R13	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.33
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.52

Quinten de Jongh

89th • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew W (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Pearlman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.49
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.17
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Tim McCarthy

80th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Teo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Renzo Schietgat (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.31
R13	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R14	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R15	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Eduardo Daniel García Reyes

94th • 4-5-0

56%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luka Kramaric (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 9:91

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs William Pearlman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Quinten de Jongh (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Troy Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.10
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.28
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.70
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.35

Jakub Kouřil

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roger Bodee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.55
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Logan King

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vladislovas Kofyrinas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Michael Dalton

dropped • 2-2-1

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marc Pearce (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sadat Minick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Draw	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.59
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Adam Fronsee

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Felipe Loyola (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.21
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Austin Redington

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Tellez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Bernardo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Barrett Goss

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elly Bird (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 9:91

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	10%	Loss	✗	0.09	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.73
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Elaine Cao

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.71
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.73
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Gilles Molina

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs JP Coleman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 81:19

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Pistel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.18
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.73
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Léo Vézinet

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manuel Curiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle James (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Lau

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Bryce Stroyek

dropped • 1-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Draw	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Kevin Murphy

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marc Pearce (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shane Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.30
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Reuben An

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.