World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luka Kramaric

20th • 8-1-0

56%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

6.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Dalton (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Patrick McGregor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.29
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.09
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.69
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.83
R14	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.50
R15	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.08

Tyler Kearney

110th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

5.2

Surp

4.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Huang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs None ()

35:65

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Gary White (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.28
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.56
R15	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.54

Adrian Gebhart

90th • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Léo Vézinet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaak Krut (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vladislovas Kofyrinas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Shane Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs JP Coleman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.09
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.59
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.37
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Pauli Viimaranta

dropped • 3-1-1

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Daniel Ferrara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Dalton (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Didier Deurloo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Draw	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R5	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

岡西達也

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.61
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.36

Donghee Kim

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Warburton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Irby (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.76
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Peng Joon

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuanji Li (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alon Edelman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Becker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.09
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.20
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Nathan Youngblut

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.