World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joris Verhelst

102nd • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gary White (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.07
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jesse Hinman

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Butcher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.31
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.08
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.91
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Cristopher Allen

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.05
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Joshua Borger

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marc Pearce (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastián Llano (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.16
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.