Puffin, Hightail at World Championship: Philadelphia 2025

Puffin, Hightail

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joris Verhelst

102nd • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gary White (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.00
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jesse Hinman

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Butcher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.30
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.11
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.86
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Cristopher Allen

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.43
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.18
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Joshua Borger

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marc Pearce (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastián Llano (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.95
R5	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.47

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.