World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Connor Bryant

21st • 9-0-0

78%

Meta

+4.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

6.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nghia Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.17
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.61
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.35
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.31
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.04
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.12
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.69
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.30

Xincheng Hou

33rd • 8-1-0

67%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

5.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Bouyer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.12
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.70
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.31
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.27
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.00
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R15	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.41

Mirko Dolce

40th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rogue Theory (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.17
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.35
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.92
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.07
R15	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.17

Lars Seebacher

dropped • 4-1-0

80%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fernando Alcantara Sarmiento (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jude Cornett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matt Rogers (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.87
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Alex Chițu

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Yau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Caraher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.96

Jacob Pacheco

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gustavo Caperan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Pearce (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.62
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Pat Eshghy

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Craig Krempels (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Pham (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.51
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.62
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Pierre-Nicolas Perrin

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaak Krut (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Abigail Welday (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Anton Cid Mejias

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Piotr Chudobinski (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Borger (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.45
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Didier Deurloo

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Donghee Kim (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gary White (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.63
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Kent Summerour

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastián Llano (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Silas Fiefhaus (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.62
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Mel Falcon

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Bouyer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Andrew Singleton

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gui Cohen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Pearlman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mara Faris

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lilith Duhart (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Sebastián Llano

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kent Summerour (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Borger (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Xavier Aubert

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fernando Alcantara Sarmiento (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Piotr Chudobinski (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Michael Jaszczur

1st • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

12.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R17 CC

Round 17: Win vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R18 CC

Round 18: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R18 CC

Round 18: Win vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

12.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R16	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	3.39
R17	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	4.61
R18	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R18	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	4.30

Osmar Bravo

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Bruner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ignacio Rodríguez Villasuso (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.