Jarl Vetreiði at World Championship: Philadelphia 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
97th • 6-2-1
56%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.3
Surp
7.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Trossing (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
Round 12: Win vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 13: Win vs Gary White (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Draw vs Arjun Garg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Arthur Reynolds (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
7.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Draw |
| R15 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
84th • 4-5-0
22%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alex Rodgers (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bea Budnik (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs William Pearlman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R14 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sebastián Llano (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Edison Yue (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dennis Zhang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Irby (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Win vs Renzo Schietgat (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nikola Kramarić (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.