Kayo, Underhanded Cheat at World Championship: Philadelphia

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nikola Kramarić

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pablo Álvarez Castillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.89
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.19
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

David Lewis

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Grace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nakara Juntavong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.27
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.74
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Jose Luis Saenz Soria

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Brummett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nick Butcher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.37
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.