Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at World Championship

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Florin-Cristian Loghin

5th • 7-3-0

80%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafał Liwerski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Correas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R16 CC

Round 16: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.42
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.52
R16	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cody Williams

12th • 6-3-0

33%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.55
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.67
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.59
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.28

Jacob Shaker

53rd • 6-3-0

33%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.8

Surp

6.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Raven (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.09
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.34
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.67
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.07
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.00
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.33
R15	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Shane Martin

dropped • 2-6-0

62%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gui Cohen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Arthur Reynolds (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Vincent PROUM (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.51
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.24
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Charles Dunn

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Victor Mercado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Huang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.20
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Derek Anderson

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None ()

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gary Gold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Juan Chacon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.32
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.50

Jordan Jalbert-Ross

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peng Joon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Correas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.77
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Nakara Juntavong

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Lewis (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Poe Cadano (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ralph Abou Hala (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Aaron Boyhan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gustavo Caperan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Ilias Karamanis

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Johannes Klaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.30
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

James Clark

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Abigail Welday (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mikael Lundberg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Redington (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Rob Catton

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Silas Fiefhaus (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.76
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tommy Buljan

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alon Edelman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pheano Black (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.00
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Yuanji Li

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peng Joon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Tellez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.61
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

enzo costa

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Huang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.09
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.50

Craig Krempels

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Phil Kinney (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nova Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Yau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Guillem Las Heras

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gustavo Caperan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.