World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Kassai of the Golden Sand (CC)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Magnuson

45th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.5

Surp

7.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wojtek Klimczyk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bryan Kong (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Joshua Rath (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Samuel Braben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.01
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.05
R15	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.19

Patrick McGregor

29th • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

5.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs William Pistel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.08
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.73
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.01
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.80
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.17
R15	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Joseph Kaiser

30th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Huang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.34
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.57
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.01
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.26

Joshua Rath

93rd • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Etienne BARIOULET (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Filip Mikołajczyk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elly Bird (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.32
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R15	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.19

Zachary Wallach

109th • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mel Falcon (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

R15

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.15
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.45
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R15	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Matthew Vore

dropped • 4-1-0

80%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Troy Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Boyhan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.81
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

shoma yamamura

dropped • 4-1-0

80%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Groseclose (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.60
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Christopher Iaali

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nova Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pablo Pintor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Dunn (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.61
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.75

Jared Wyce

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joao Morato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.30
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Phil Kinney

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Craig Krempels (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michel Corvino (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Knight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.45
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.05
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Andrew Clayton

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rob Catton (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Edward Knight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.60
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Andrew Rothermel

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vladislovas Kofyrinas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle James (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Tellez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.60
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Federico Sirri

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kent Summerour (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Bruner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rob Catton (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

Pablo Pintor

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.02
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Quinn Wongkew

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Dagan White

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shlomo Gdalevich (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.00
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gen Shinohara

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.53
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Lorenzo Bonaga

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Lewis (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Daniel Ferrara

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.