World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Marlynn, Treasure Hunter (CC)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joao Morato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 71:29

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.37
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.62
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.41
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Nathanael Frautschy

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.16
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Ian Zhang

3rd • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.9

Surp

10.6

Diff

Deck

40:60

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

30:70

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

10.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R16	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	10.58
R17	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.