Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at World Championship

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

5:95

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 7:93, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joao Morato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

5:95

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 7:93

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	5%	Win	✗	0.93	0.64
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Nathanael Frautschy

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 19:81

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.27
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Ian Zhang

3rd • 1-1-0

Meta

+0.4

Perf

0.9

Surp

12.2

Diff

35:65

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (0.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

12.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R16	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	12.19
R17	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.