Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Sydney 2025

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Troy Wilson

27th • 7-4-0

64%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Nelson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gus Drummond (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John McCreanor (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Glumac (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ceejay Gordon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jason Pickett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs collin hee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Brendan Champion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.12
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.35
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.38
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.45
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.46
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Daniel Chan

32nd • 6-5-0

64%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Damien Hutchins (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Gubbins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Bell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.23
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.16
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.29
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Eugene Beissel

dropped • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marty Watt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Hensworth (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Draw	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Matthew Angove

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Coyle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ceejay Gordon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Leo Larkham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jac Jac (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.99
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Nik Malev

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew O'Grady ()

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Tang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Ian Zhong

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andy Pham (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Micheal Maurici (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Darren Taing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Lenihan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Daniel Madden

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Scott Dunstan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leo Larkham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Tom Malek

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Dunstan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Ta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Ren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Watson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hamish Dickson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.38
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jeffery Broad

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leo Larkham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jackson Bulat (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jalen Williams Max (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brett Curtain (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Michael Postle

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Billy Docherty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.