Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
27th • 7-4-0
64%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
5.6
Surp
3.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Arthur Kindl (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Xavier Nelson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gus Drummond (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Round 5: Loss vs John McCreanor (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Eric Glumac (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ceejay Gordon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jason Pickett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs collin hee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Brendan Champion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
64% (7/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
32nd • 6-5-0
73%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
5.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Damien Hutchins (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Gubbins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Bell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-2-1
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marty Watt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 74:26
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Hensworth (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Evan Bicknell (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Draw |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Josh Coyle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ceejay Gordon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Leo Larkham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jac Jac (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tom Dagan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew O'Grady ()
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jack Tang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Daniil Matveyev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andy Pham (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Micheal Maurici (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Darren Taing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Justin Lenihan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Scott Dunstan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Leo Larkham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Scott Dunstan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Ta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Ren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs William Watson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Hamish Dickson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leo Larkham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jackson Bulat (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Justin Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jalen Williams Max (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brett Curtain (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Berry (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andy Pham (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Loss vs Billy Docherty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.