Kayo, Underhanded Cheat at Calling: Sydney 2025
Kayo, Underhanded Cheat
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
24th • 7-4-0
36%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
5.2
Surp
5.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Greg Illingworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brett Curtain (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Robert Piper (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tom Debney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 40:60
Round 6: Win vs Matthew Ta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andy Pham (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs David Yau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Round 9: Win vs Cody Gebert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 10: Win vs Daniel Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
36% (4/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 20% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.7
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brendan Champion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 21:79
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Declan Carlsson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
Round 3: Loss vs Lachlan Saunders (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Liam Herzer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kael Sabben (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leo Larkham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Dev Gordon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brodii Dias (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brendan Champion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 21:79
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 21:79
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matt Quigley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nando Nando (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Darge (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-1
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John McCreanor (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Mark Webster (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dev Gordon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Draw |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.