Arakni, Huntsman at Calling: Sydney 2025 — FaB-Results

Arakni, Huntsman

Arakni, Huntsman

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

30th • 7-4-0

82%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jalen Williams Max (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dev Gordon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Dash I/O

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Caserta (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lachlan Saunders (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Ta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Oliver Berry (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

15:85

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 15:85

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jason Pickett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.17
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.27
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.56
R6	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.67
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Zhong (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Greg Illingworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Postle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Khoo (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Fang, Dracai of Blades

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Serge Balaam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Green (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 15:85

Kassai of the Golden Sand

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Josh Loney (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.