Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant at Calling: Sydney 2025

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Oliver Berry

dropped • 5-2-2

56%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nova Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Postle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Joshua Baines (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joon Chien Tan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yifei Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gus Drummond (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs David Yau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.06
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Draw	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.59
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.81
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Alexander Dobler

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexis Alexander (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Pickett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Piper Allen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs jiasu chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Daniel Johnson : )

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Marr (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kurtis phelps (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Grace Luckman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.