Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Sydney 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

collin hee

19th • 7-4-0

73%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Rashad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Grace Luckman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Thomson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Scott Dunstan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Gardiner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brendan Champion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Troy Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kurtis phelps (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.25
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.37
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.17
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.55
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.63
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Tom Dagan

43rd • 5-6-0

36%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Keegan Walls (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs collin hee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

36% (4/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.17
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.39
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.76
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.49
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Dev Gordon

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Horne (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nando Nando (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs William Hansen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lachlan Maddaford (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.29
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Ekam Khaira

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Thomson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Levi Gott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Micheal Maurici (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Gubbins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Ren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.64
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.19
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Tallin Davis

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Levi Gott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Debney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None ()

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Eid (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hamish Dickson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Liam Herzer

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jackson Bulat (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Hansen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lachlan Maddaford (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Caserta (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.90
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Samuel Thomson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ekam Khaira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs collin hee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arthur Kindl

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.