Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Sydney 2025
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 7-4-0
73%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
5.0
Surp
2.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Rashad (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Round 2: Win vs Grace Luckman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Samuel Thomson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Scott Dunstan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Zachary Gardiner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Brendan Champion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Troy Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Kurtis phelps (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
Round 1: Win vs Keegan Walls (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Toby Wilson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
Round 5: Win vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs collin hee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Cody Gebert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
27% (3/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Horne (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nando Nando (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 6: Win vs William Hansen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 7: Loss vs Lachlan Maddaford (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Thomson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Win vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Levi Gott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66
Round 5: Win vs Micheal Maurici (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Gubbins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Ren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Levi Gott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tom Debney (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs None ()
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Eid (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hamish Dickson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | 50% | Win | |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jackson Bulat (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 3: Win vs William Hansen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lachlan Maddaford (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Caserta (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ekam Khaira (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs collin hee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
0.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Troy Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.