Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Calling: Sydney 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Eid

dropped • 2-4-1

43%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Angus Lillie (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Quigley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tallin Davis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josh Coyle (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Greg Illingworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs James Drummond (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.71
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Maddy Carlier

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marty Watt (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Naomi Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vincent Lam (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fazeel R (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Clint Riley

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 24:76

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James MacDonald (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.