Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Calling: Sydney 2025
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
42nd • 6-5-0
45%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
5.0
Surp
2.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Rayner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Remi Grasset (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Royals (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thomas Dowling (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22
Round 9: Loss vs Abigail Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Fennir Pan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
45% (5/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
0%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Xavier Nelson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs bill huynh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Darge (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Coffey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yifei Wang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
15:85
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Justin Lenihan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 16:84
Meta Fit
0% (0/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Liam Herzer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeffery Broad (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Green (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-1
25%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs shirui wu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Johnie Kuy (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mason Dutcher (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sam Davison (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Pleiades, Superstar | 60% | Draw |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.