Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Sydney 2025
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
3 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
25th • 7-4-0
55%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brad Forrester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs James Storey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Chan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Dentale (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Bell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Round 6: Win vs bill huynh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Samuel Coffey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Shaun Leow (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 9: Win vs Ashwin Deen Masi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs shirui wu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mason Dutcher (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Watson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Mifsud (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Darryn Ying (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Ta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adrienne Morales (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Hansen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Darge (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alexis Alexander (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.