Arakni, Marionette
3 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
11th • 8-3-0
73%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Green (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jac Jac (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Patrick Watt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Andrew Qi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
31st • 7-4-0
73%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Jones (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eugene Beissel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joseph Darge (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Hill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Round 9: Loss vs Ben Dodd (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tom Dagan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Patrik Ikhardt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Darren Taing (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ashwin Deen Masi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nova Chan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Hyde (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.