Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
21 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 9-1-0
90%
Meta
+3.6
Perf
4.7
Surp
4.2
Diff
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Logan King (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Beihn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Noah Rolf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
90% (9/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
5th • 6-2-0
88%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.4
Diff
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Colton Branch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joe Santianna (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rex Carroll (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Round 5: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
dropped • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thomas Bray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 78:22
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 78:22
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
dropped • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Colton Branch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
dropped • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Cawvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler McMurray (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryant Kiley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Wynn (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gage Gilliam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sage Husanu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs jordan johnson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Phillip Scott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 48:52
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rex Carroll (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Maddux Warren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler McMurray (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 4: Loss vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Colton Branch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Phillip Spader (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Swazey Sexton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Max McLean (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher McQuary (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 73:27
Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Maddux Warren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rex Carroll (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.