Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025 - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

21 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yasunari Sakuma

2nd • 9-1-0

90%

Meta

+3.8

Perf

4.9

Surp

4.6

Diff

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Logan King (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Beihn (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Rolf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.24
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R5	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.35
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Logan King

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Colton Branch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joe Santianna (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.14
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jacob Bader

dropped • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rex Carroll (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.37
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.73

Kent Summerour

dropped • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Bray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.19
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Michael Berg

dropped • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Colton Branch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.85
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Michael Clair

dropped • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Cawvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler McMurray (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Anthony Pham

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryant Kiley (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Wynn (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.29
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Cooper

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.63
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Shelly

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gage Gilliam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sage Husanu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Sage Husanu

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs jordan johnson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.68
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

William Weinberg

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Scott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rex Carroll (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maddux Warren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.12
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.93
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Hakan Gunes

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler McMurray (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Pankaj Bhojwani

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.49
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.52
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Peter Buddensiek

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colton Branch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.39
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.88
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Mason Herschberg

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Spader (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.42
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.85
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Peter Wemhoff

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Swazey Sexton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Max McLean (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.17
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Tyler Wolford

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher McQuary (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

John Milner

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maddux Warren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rex Carroll (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

David Roger Jr.

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Devin Simms

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Dylan Arnold

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.