Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Kansas City

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Christopher Wynn

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 18:82

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tamren Cardwell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.40
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Steve Halloran

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 31:69

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 18:82

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.44
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Devin Stevenson

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Cawvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Zachary Rhodes

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 31:69

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Scott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Trent Williams

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

0.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Wright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kyle Wright

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trent Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.