Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Kansas City

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Christopher Wynn

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tamren Cardwell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.27
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Steve Halloran

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Devin Stevenson

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Cawvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Zachary Rhodes

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Scott (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.55

Trent Williams

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Wright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kyle Wright

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trent Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.