Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Kansas City 2025
Arakni, Marionette
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-2-0
89%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.9
Diff
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Noah Fogle (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
5th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.4
Diff
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Trent Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs William Pearlman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Dylan Williamson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Arnold (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christopher McQuary (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Chuck Ford (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jarron Idleman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Perry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.